Can you predict Senate elections more accurately than a basic polling average? It’s something we at FiveThirtyEight try to do. For our official Senate forecast, we’ll include adjustments for fundraising, candidate quality, pollster bias (statistical bias…
As Tuesday night got going, most people suspected that Republicans were headed for a good night. This, after all, was what the polls strongly suggested. Instead, they had a great night. What is odd is that, while there was a cluster of conversations suggesting…
Florida voters will see medical marijuana on the ballot a little over a month. Amendment 2 would legalize medical marijuana in Florida, which is long overdue. The for and against campaigns have spent more money than any other marijuana campaign in the…
Watch PBS NewsHour’s live election coverage in the player above. We will live stream results from 6-11:30 p.m. EST Nov. 4. As control of the U.S. Senate hangs in the balance, PBS NewsHour is bringing you live results and analysis this Election Day. Beginning…
Washington (CNN) - If a rematch of the 2012 presidential election were held today, GOP nominee Mitt Romney would top President Barack Obama in the popular vote, according to a new national survey. But a CNN/ORC International poll also indicates that if…
UPDATE–11/6, 3:30AM PST As an addition to the data provided below, results from our presidential poll tracker from Monday, 11/5 indicates that Virginia has gone blue in all three of our models. Also, our raw model now matches our model that is weighted…
So far this year, 53 percent of probable Senate matchups have been surveyed at least once. I went through the FiveThirtyEight polling archive and checked how many states had at least one poll from January to March of an election year. (Note: FiveThirtyEight’s…
Mitch McConnell needs to run up big margins in rural areas. | M.Scott Mahaskey/POLITICO Though the final makeup of the Senate and House might not be known for days or months, it should take only a few hours after polls start to close for solid clues to…
Pretty soon, the country s top pollsters will make a subtle change that even some political junkies won t process: They will shift from reporting results of registered voters to only those most likely to vote in the 2014 election - a.k.a. likely voters…
ReutersAmerican Crossroads, the Republican super PAC founded by Karl Rove, released a set of eight polls on Friday showing that control of the Senate is up for grabs ahead of November s midterm elections. According to the polls, which were conducted…
By Michael Patrick Leahy 0 On Friday, the Daily Caller released a poll that showed House Majority Leader Eric Cantor’s (R-VA) lead over Tea Party-backed challenger Rep. Dave Brat (R-VA) in the Republican primary in Virginia’s 7th Congressional District…
Image caption Anti-government protesters again took to the streets of Port-au-Prince on Friday Haiti has installed a Provisional Electoral Council to organise long-delayed elections - after weeks of protests and political uncertainty. The nine-member…
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