Election polling Times

Mitch McConnell needs to run up big margins in rural areas. | M.Scott Mahaskey/POLITICO

Though the final makeup of the Senate and House might not be known for days or months, it should take only a few hours after polls start to close for solid clues to emerge about which party is in for a good night.

On the Senate side, the states to watch are New Hampshire and North Carolina: If Republicans come out on top in either state — Democratic incumbents are favored in both — the odds of a GOP-controlled Senate will instantly skyrocket. On the House side, if Republicans pick up seats early in the night in blue terrain like Illinois and New York, it could signal bigger-than-expected GOP gains.

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With that in mind, here’s our hour-by-hour guide for how to watch returns tonight (all times Eastern).

6 p.m.

Polls in the eastern half of Kentucky close first; those in the western half of the state that abuts Ohio and is in the Central Time Zone wrap up an hour later. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell needs to run up big margins in rural areas — including coal country in the east — to offset Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes’ strength in the more urban areas of Louisville and Lexington.

7 p.m.

Democrats have been unexpectedly strong in Georgia’s Senate and gubernatorial races, but Republicans are trying to break a 50 percent threshold in both to avoid a January runoff.

Democratic Senate candidate Michelle Nunn has run an Atlanta-based volunteerism nonprofit, and Republican David Perdue is from central Georgia and lives on the coast. Watch how both fare in suburban Gwinnett County, northeast of Atlanta, for early signals when the polls close at 7 p.m.

Rep. John Barrow, the only white Democrat representing a district in the Deep South, has run one of the best campaigns of the year. In an Augusta-area district where Obama is deeply unpopular, he has aired a series of colorful TV ads in which he distances himself from the national party. But in a tough year, it may not be enough. If Barrow goes down, it will be an early sign that things are heading in the wrong direction for Democrats.

7:30 p.m.

North Carolina — where polls close at half-past seven — is the year’s most expensive Senate race. Democratic incumbent Kay Hagan has a slight advantage going into Election Day, driven by her party’s perceived strength in early voting. Hagan, who toppled Elizabeth Dole in 2008, hails from the conservative Greensboro market and hopes to overperform there. Republican challenger Thom Tillis represents suburban Charlotte in the state House, but Hagan polls well in this region.